The Betting Lines
by Bobby Bryde
Hockey lines aren’t the same as those used in football and basketball; in most cases a money line - or split line - is used. With the proliferation of off-shore sports books, you might find as many as three or four different lines for one game - some books even offer three different lines for each game.
Let’s use Montreal @ Edmonton as an example (remember the home team is always on the bottom):
The Money Line:
Montreal +.5 -$1.10
Edmonton –.5 -$1.10
Sometimes called the Split Line.
Notice the 20 cent difference between the prices, minus $1.10 and minus $1.10? This is a 20 cent line, giving the books a theoretical hold percentage of 4.5 per cent, which decreases as the favorite gets higher.
If you bet on Montreal, you get the Habs plus .5 goal and minus $1.10; if Montreal wins or ties (you've got plus .5 goal, remember?) you get your original $11 bet and $10 which you won, or a total of $21.
Betting on Edmonton? You have to lay –.5 goal and bet $11 for every $10 you want to win. Edmonton must win (you’re laying –.5 goal) to cash your ticket. If the Oilers win you get back your original $11 bet plus $10, or $21.
The money line normally offers the best option for hockey bettors, and a 20 cent line is a fair line for the book and the bettor.
Montreal +.5 -$1.15
Edmonton -.5 -$1.15
This is a 30 cent line, meaning a slightly higher (app. 6.5 per cent) hold percentage. Books using a 30 cent line don’t want action, dont have faith in the opening lines, or don't have supervisors who are adept at moving numbers. If that wasn’t the case, a house using a 30 cent line would raise their limits, since the hold percentage is higher.
Montreal +.5 -$1.20
Edmonton -.5 -$1.20
This is a 40 cents line, giving the house a hold percentage of over 8 per cent. Any outfit using a 40 cent line is lucky Ralph Nader isn’t a hockey bettor.
Some books offer two different money lines on the same game, using the 1.5 goal line.
Montreal +1.5 -$1.50
Edmonton -1.5 +$1.30
You’ll eventually find that not many books know how to correlate prices, so learning what a goal is worth will help you to decide which line has the best value.
The Puck Line:
Montreal +.5
Edmonton -1
All bets are even money. If you bet $10 on Edmonton minus one goal, the Oilers must win by two goals or more to win your bet. If you bet on Montreal you've got Montreal plus .5 EVEN. If Montreal wins or ties, you win. If Edmonton wins by one goal, Oiler bettors tie (push) and get their original bet returned, while Canadiens bettors lose. Books make their money on the puck line when favorites win by one goal, as they return the original Edmonton bets (pushes), but keep the Montreal bets. You rarely will be betting into the puck line.
Remember, the theoretical hold for the puck line is determined by the percentage of games which fall on the favorite winning by one goal.
If betting the dog using the puck line, never take less than two goals; a better price on the dog can always be found elsewhere.
When shopping for prices don’t bypass a house just because they use the puck line (don’t forget you still have totals to check). Not all books correlate prices identically. For instance, Edmonton opens –.5 minus $1.30 on the money line; one house using the Puck line might put up
Montreal EVEN
Edmonton -.5
Another house using the puck line might use
Montreal +.5
Edmonton -1
Books using the puck line need to move the numbers once they take action on a game, so you might see a mutated version of the puck line.
Montreal +.5 +$1.20
Edmonton -1 -$1.20
The Pick Line:
Montreal PICK +$1.60
Edmonton PICK -$1.80
This line offers straight money line wagering. Games ending tied are pushes. This is the same kind of line used for the playoffs, where games can’t end tied. Any manager exclusively using this line failed Bookmaking 101. Most books don’t know how to correlate the prices from the opening money line, often adding as much as 65 cents to the favorite price, when a half goal is worth no more than 40 to 45 cents.
Occasionally you might find a line with three way betting:
Montreal PICK+$1.30
Tied +$4.60
Edmonton PICK -$1.40
This is the three tier betting system occasionally used for soccer. Technically, Montreal is still minus .5 goal, because they have to win the game to win your bet; ditto for Edmonton. Because there are three different results, the hold percentage for the house is higher. A fair hold percentage for a book using the three tier system is about 3 per cent. Look for a books to offer at least plus +$6.00 on the ties.
Before the 99/00 hockey season began, I received many calls/e-mails asking about some sports books going to the PICK LINE. Some books prefer it because they have an excuse to post a higher straddle at -$2.00, using -$2.20 take back +$1.80. Any book using -$3.00 take back +$2.20 is basically telling you they don’t want any hockey action.
more next week...
bb
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